Bump and Run Reversal is a chart pattern that signals a potential trend change, starting with a steep price rise or fall followed by a sharp reversal.
What Is the Bump and Run Reversal (BARR) Pattern?
The Bump and Run Reversal (BARR) is a clean, three-phase reversal setup that shows when a trend is flipping from bullish to bearish, or bearish to bullish.
You’ll see it at tops and bottoms, so it works in both directions. Bulkowski’s stats are why traders pay attention to it: BARR bottoms in bull markets averaged a 37% rise with a 92% target hit rate across 1,099 samples (360 patterns). That doesn’t mean every one prints, but it’s one of the more tradable reversal structures when it’s formed correctly.
The logic is simple: price trends in a controlled way (lead-in), then goes parabolic as late money piles in (bump). Once that move runs out of fuel, price snaps back and the break of the lead-in trendline during the run phase is your confirmation. That’s the key difference versus guessing a top or bottom—BARR gives you a trigger.
What separates BARR from a lot of “vibes-based” reversal patterns:
Three clear phases you can actually mark on a chart
The bump is steep and typically reaches at least 2x the lead-in move
The trade trigger is the trendline break (run phase), not the bump itself
Volume tells the story: quiet lead-in, expansion into the bump, then a breakout spike
Angle guidelines: ~30–45° lead-in, ~45–60° bump
Because the structure is measurable, you get more objective entries, stops, and targets instead of forcing a pattern onto noisy price action.
How to Trade the BARR Pattern: Entry, Targets, and Stops
Best BARR Entry Signals
The clean entry is on the confirmed trendline break in the run phase.
For a bearish BARR top, you’re looking to short when price closes below the rising lead-in trendline. For a bullish BARR bottom, you’re looking to go long when price closes above the falling lead-in trendline.
A lot of traders get better risk/reward by waiting for the throwback/retest (common around 60%). The best breaks usually come with: a decisive close beyond the line, a volume surge, and price action that looks like a real reversal (engulfing candle, strong impulse bar, or a clean failure swing). Once the break happens, the polarity flip matters—old support/resistance levels become the “line in the sand” for managing the trade.
How to Set BARR Profit Targets
The standard target is the measure rule: take the vertical height of the bump and project it from the breakout point. For bearish patterns, project down; for bullish patterns, project up. That’s the framework behind the strong hit-rate stats on well-formed patterns.
You can also blend targets with structure—prior swing highs/lows, supply/demand zones, or Fibonacci levels—especially if the measured move runs into a major weekly level. Scaling out works well here: take partials into the first obvious level, then let the rest try to hit the full measured move while trailing behind structure or momentum shifts.
How to Manage Risk on BARR Trades
Stops are straightforward: above the bump high for bearish shorts, below the bump low for bullish longs. If that’s too wide, some traders use a tighter stop based on the retest structure, but you’re paying for it with a higher chance of getting clipped.
Size the position off the stop distance so you’re only risking 1–2% per trade. BARR can move fast after the break, but it can also whip on the retest, so don’t force a tight stop just to trade bigger. Keep the math clean—aim for at least 1:2, and 1:3 when the structure allows it.
How to Confirm a BARR Pattern With Technical Analysis
How to Draw the Lead-In Trendline Correctly
The trendline is the backbone of BARR. Draw the lead-in line using multiple clean pivots—connecting lows for an uptrend lead-in (bearish BARR top setup) or highs for a downtrend lead-in (bullish BARR bottom setup). If you’re anchoring off random wicks just to make it fit, the setup is already compromised.
The better price “hugs” that line during the lead-in, the more meaningful the break tends to be. Angle tools can help, but the main goal is consistency: moderate lead-in slope, then a noticeably steeper bump.
What Volume and Momentum Should Look Like in Each Phase
Volume and momentum should change character as the pattern progresses:
Phase | Volume | Volatility | Momentum |
|---|---|---|---|
Lead-in | Average/Low | Low-Moderate | Steady |
Bump | Expanding | High | Peaking/Diverging |
Run | Spiking on Break | Elevated | Shifting |
In practice, the bump is where you often see the first warning signs—momentum stops confirming while price keeps pushing. Then the run phase confirms it with the break. When volume matches the script (quiet → expanding → breakout spike), the setup quality jumps. Without that, you’re more exposed to a fakeout.
How to Filter False BARR Breakouts
Bulkowski puts false signals around 19%, which is why you don’t want to front-run the break. Wait for a real close through the line, not a quick intraday poke.
Since throwbacks happen a lot, you can use the retest as your filter: does price fail back under the line (bearish) or hold above it (bullish)? Low liquidity, headline spikes, and chop will inflate the failure rate, so it helps to stack confirmations—volume, candle structure, nearby support/resistance, and broader tape context. Logging screenshots in a trading journal makes it obvious which versions of the pattern you personally trade well.
What Are the 3 Phases of the BARR Pattern?
Lead-In Phase: How to Spot the Base Trend
The lead-in phase is the “normal trend” part. Price tracks a steady trendline with a moderate slope (roughly 30–45°), and volume is usually average to quiet. This is where the market looks healthy and controlled—buyers are in charge in a bullish lead-in, sellers are in charge in a bearish one.
What you want to see is price respecting the line. The cleaner the touches and the less sloppy the swings, the more useful the trendline becomes later when it finally breaks. Depending on timeframe, this phase can run for weeks or months.
Bump Phase: What Confirms a Blow-Off Move?
The bump phase is the emotional part of the move. Price detaches from the lead-in trendline and accelerates at a steeper angle (often 45–60°). The bump should be obvious—if you have to convince yourself it’s a bump, it probably isn’t. Classic criteria is the bump reaching at least double the lead-in height.
Volume typically expands here, volatility picks up, and momentum tools like RSI or MACD often start to diverge as the move stretches. This is where FOMO buying or panic selling shows up, and that’s exactly why it tends to exhaust.
Roughly 12–18% of patterns print a second bump, which can mess with timing, but the same idea applies: the steeper the move gets, the more fragile it becomes.
Run Phase: When Is the BARR Reversal Confirmed?
The run phase is where the pattern actually becomes tradable. Price rolls over (or turns up) and then breaks the original lead-in trendline. That trendline break is the main reversal signal.
Ideally you get a decisive close beyond the line and volume picking up on the break. Throwbacks/retests are common (around 60% in many studies), so you’ll often get a second entry window after the initial break. Once the line breaks, you’re watching for polarity: old support becoming resistance, or old resistance becoming support.
Where Does the BARR Pattern Work Best in Real Markets?
How BARR Appears in Stocks, Forex, Crypto, and Commodities
BARR shows up in stocks, FX, commodities, and crypto. Daily and weekly charts tend to give the cleanest versions because the phases are easier to separate. Quantified research ranks BARR bottoms as the #1 performer in bull markets and #2 in bear markets, and tops hold up well across conditions too.
A common real-world look: a stock trends up steadily, then goes into a blow-off bump. Once it loses the lead-in trendline, the short is no longer a guess—it’s a structural reversal with defined risk and a measured target. FX traders see the same thing during speculative currency runs, especially around crowded positioning and macro catalysts.
The pattern’s baseline accuracy is often quoted around 60–80%, and it tends to improve when you demand proper structure plus confirmation (volume, momentum shift, and a real break).
Common BARR Trading Mistakes to Avoid
The same errors show up over and over:
Premature entry: shorting the bump (or buying it) before the trendline break
Forcing the pattern: calling anything steep a “bump” when the lead-in isn’t clean
Ignoring volume: trading the break with no participation behind it
Bad trendlines: anchoring off the wrong pivots, which makes the “break” meaningless
No context: taking it straight into major support/resistance or against the broader market tape
Skipping slope/shape checks: the pattern needs a moderate lead-in and a clearly steeper bump
BARR rewards patience. If you’re disciplined about waiting for the break and keeping notes on which versions work (single bump vs double bump, clean retest vs messy chop), your execution gets tighter fast.
BARR Pattern Pros and Cons
BARR Pattern Advantages
BARR’s edge is that it’s structured and tradable. The phases are clear, the trigger is clear, and risk is easy to define. Bulkowski’s dataset (1,099 samples) showing 37% average rise and a 92% target hit rate on certain bullish cases is a big reason it’s respected.
You also get practical mechanics: entries off the trendline break, targets off the measured move, and stops around the bump extremes. It translates well across markets—S&P 500 names, EUR/USD, gold futures, Bitcoin—because it’s really a crowd-behavior pattern: orderly trend, late-stage acceleration, then failure.
BARR Pattern Limitations and Failure Risks
The downside is execution and selectivity. You need a clean lead-in, a real bump, and a meaningful break—otherwise you’re just trading noise. The ~19% false signal rate is real, especially in choppy ranges, low-volume sessions, or headline-driven spikes.
There’s also some subjectivity: trendlines and “angle” checks aren’t identical trader to trader. And it’s not a high-frequency pattern; good ones take time to form, which doesn’t fit every style.
BARR Pattern Summary: Key Rules and Takeaways
BARR is a reversal pattern built around three phases: a controlled lead-in (30–45°), a steep bump (45–60°) that often reaches about 2x the lead-in move, and a run phase where the trendline break confirms the reversal. If you skip the confirmation, you’re usually just fading momentum and hoping.
The best trades come when structure and confirmation line up—clean trendline, obvious bump, momentum exhaustion, and volume showing participation on the break. Targets are typically set with the measured move, risk is defined off the bump extremes, and throwbacks often give a cleaner entry if you’re patient.
Used alongside basic market context and support/resistance, BARR can be a solid part of a technical toolkit—highly structured, easy to manage, and built around a trigger you can actually execute.
How do you turn BARR rules into consistent execution over time?
BARR is objective on paper—trendline quality, bump steepness, volume behavior, and the run-phase break—but consistency comes from tracking how you apply those rules in live conditions. After each trade, review whether you waited for a decisive close, how often you benefited from the throwback/retest, and whether your stop placement (bump extreme vs tighter retest structure) matched the volatility you were trading. Over a sample of trades, a journal helps you quantify what “clean” really means for you: which timeframes produce the best measured-move follow-through, how false breaks show up in your market, and what risk/reward you actually capture versus the plan. Using a structured trade journal and analytics dashboard such as Rizetrade trading journal software for PnL tracking, screenshots, and pattern statistics can make it easier to spot repeatable BARR setups, identify execution errors, and refine your filters without changing the strategy every time a trade fails.