What is the win rate of the Ichimoku strategy?

The Ichimoku strategy's win rate typically falls between 40% and 60%, with most backtests landing near 50-55% in trending markets and dropping toward break-even in choppy conditions.

In strong trending markets, the strategy hits roughly 58% with a 1.5-to-1 reward-to-risk ratio, where the break-even win rate sits at 40%, while in extremely bad markets the Ichimoku Cloud delivers around a 39% win rate.

Performance shifts dramatically based on exit rules, timeframe, and asset. Some tests show win rates as high as 71% with specific exit criteria, though broader backtests often fail to outperform a simple buy-and-hold approach across various assets.

The number itself matters less than pairing Ichimoku with a favorable risk-reward ratio and trading it only in clear trends.